Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
نویسنده
چکیده
The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Needed improvements in the accuracy of official TC track forecasts include: (i) reducing the severity and frequency of major track forecast "busts" for which the track forecast error at a particular time exceeds seasonal averages by a factor of two or more; (ii) widening the margin by which on average the official TC track forecast improves upon available numerical and other objective TC track forecast guidance; and (iii) better temporal consistency (i.e., watch-to-watch) of official TC track forecasts.
منابع مشابه
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting via the Minimum Message Length Principle: A Preliminary Result
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An Informed System Development Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting
......................................................................................................................... iii Populärvetenskaplig sammanfattning ............................................................................... v Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ vii
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